+79 %: oil & gas, the only sector still growing emissions since 2004

Since 2004, Canada has reduced emissions in nearly every major industrial sector. Electricity, steel, cement: the curve points downward. Except in one sector. Oil & gas has grown its emissions by 79 % over twenty years, rising from 77.6 to 139.2 megatonnes (Mt). It now accounts for 47.9 % of all emissions reported by large Canadian facilities to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP).

1. The illusion of a stable balance sheet

The headline figure looks reassuring: 282.8 Mt in 2004, 290.6 Mt in 2023. A 2.8 % increase over twenty years. Almost nothing. But that total conceals a spectacular weight transfer inside the Canadian industrial system.

The chart below tells this story in two lines. The green curve: the rest of Canadian industry, all the facilities not in the oil & gas sector. It falls from 205.2 Mt in 2004 to 151.4 Mt in 2023, a 26 % reduction. The grey curve: oil & gas. It rises from 77.6 Mt to 139.2 Mt.

Two lines that nearly cross. In 2004, oil & gas represented 27 % of the total. In 2023, it represents 48 %. If the trend holds, its share will exceed 50 % before 2030.

2. The 2017 surge

The increase did not happen gradually. Between 2016 and 2017, sector emissions jumped by 19.6 Mt, from 105.4 to 125.9 Mt. That is the largest single-year increase in the period. It coincides with the simultaneous commissioning of several major oil sands expansion projects: the Christina Lake expansion (Cenovus), Phase 3 of the Horizon project (Canadian Natural Resources), and Foster Creek Phase D (FCCL LP).

The chart below breaks down the sector into four sub-sectors: oil sands, conventional oil & gas, pipelines, and refineries. The orange band (oil sands) shows the most sustained growth, nearly tripling over the period. The sharp jump in conventional & gas in 2017 partly reflects an expansion of the GHGRP reporting threshold that year, which brought hundreds of previously unreported smaller facilities into the dataset.

Oil sands dominate the increase. In 2004, they represented 30 Mt. In 2023, they reach 78 Mt, a 161 % increase over the period. Refineries have declined slightly from 21 to 17 Mt. Pipelines are roughly flat at 11 Mt.

3. A handful of facilities, a third of the sector

The chart below shows the ten largest reporters in the sector in 2023. The top three (CNRL, Suncor Energy Oil Sands, and the Syncrude facility, now operated by Suncor since its 2021 acquisition) together account for 43.4 Mt, or 31 % of the sector's annual emissions. The top ten together represent 70 % of the sector total.

But the concentration of the problem in a handful of facilities is only one side of the picture. The rest of the Canadian economy tells a different story.

4. The rest of Canada is doing its part

What the oil figures eclipse is a real and documented reduction in other industrial sectors. Electricity generation has substantially cut its emissions since coal plant closures in Ontario and New Brunswick. Steel and iron have fallen. Cement and lime have fallen. Metal mining, however, has more than doubled.

The largest reduction: electricity generation, whose large-facility emissions fell 52 % since 2004, driven by coal plant closures in Ontario and New Brunswick. Iron and steel declined 18 %. Cement, 15 %. Metal mining moved in the opposite direction, rising from 5.5 to 11.7 Mt. These sectoral gains are real. The problem: the oil & gas increase (+61.6 Mt) far outweighs them all.

5. The 2030 target and the widening gap

Canada committed under the Paris Agreement to reduce its total emissions by 40 to 45 % below 2005 levels by 2030. For large facilities reporting to the GHGRP, 2005 emissions stood at 278.2 Mt, implying a target of 153 to 167 Mt. In 2023, the figure stands at 290.6 Mt. Canada is not approaching the target: it is moving away from it.

The chart below shows the actual trajectory since 2004 and the path that would have been required. The red shading is the gap widening year after year.

The distance to close is 124 to 138 Mt. To reach the target by 2030, the equivalent of all current oil sector emissions would need to be eliminated within seven years. Since 2004, the total reduction has been only 2.8 %.

Methodology: all data comes from the emissions table in PollutionData, filtered on entity_type='emission' (GHGRP). The oil & gas sector includes NAICS codes 211114, 211141, 211142 (oil sands), 211110, 211113 (conventional and natural gas), 486210 (pipelines), and 324110 (petroleum refineries). Years covered: 2004 to 2023. Emissions are in megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent. The 2030 target is calculated based on 2005 GHGRP emissions (278.2 Mt), with a 40 to 45 % reduction.